Thinking Long-Term: Back to writing after a 4 year break (and Why Now Matters More Than Ever)
Dear Readers,
After a 4-year break due to a NDA in my previous role, I’m back to writing here full-time.
A lot has changed — in the markets, the world, and in my own investing journey. New technologies have disrupted entire industries (looking at you Chegg or Fiverr), inflation is coming back and forth and so are Trump’s Trade tariffs and investor psychology is more volatile than ever.
The old way of investing — purely on the growth vs valuation or patience — isn’t dead, but it needs updating.
📅 How did I do in the Last 4 Years
Since stepping away from writing, I’ve been quietly navigating one of the most humbling and educational periods in my investing journey.
Here’s a quick snapshot:
✅ 2021: Stayed mostly invested — a strong year.
My portfolio did well, helped by the momentum in tech and crypto. I also had one of my best trades ever — Bitcoin.
Entry: ~$7.5K (yes, I wrote about it in my 2020 substack)
Exit: ~$40K by Jan 2021 — a 5x move
Re-entered at ~$35K (June 2021), exited again near $46K
Re-entered April 2023 at ~$29K — still long.
❌ 2022: My wake-up call.
I ignored technical signals and held onto the "growth story" too tightly — names like $ROKU and $FSLY.
Fundamentals were deteriorating fast, but I didn’t act fast enough.
Lesson learned: Price action > personal conviction.
🧊 Mid-2022 to early 2023: Reset.
I exited most of my growth positions by April 2022.
Sat in cash for the rest of the year.
That pause helped me break old biases, avoiding a further growth stocks massacre and detach from narratives that no longer made sense.
💡 2023: Rebuilding smart.
As liquidity returned and technicals looked constructive, I gradually redeployed capital into:
Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and DogeCoin.
Beaten-down large caps like $AMZN, $GOOGL, $TSLA, $MELI, $NVDA, $CRWD, $DDOG, $TTD.
Need less to say, 2023 and 2024 were extremely strong years for my crypto and stock portfolios.
⚠️ 2025: Back to Defense Mode
In early March 2025, I rotated back to 40% cash, where I remain for now.
The move wasn’t based on fear — it was based on macro deterioration:
Rising tariff rhetoric, declining consumer and business sentiment, and broader uncertainty have reduced my near-term conviction in US equities.
That said, this is a fluid situation. I’m closely monitoring key signals to determine whether to increase exposure again or take further risk off the table.
Put simply:
📉 We’re at a crucial moment in time.
🔁 The Biggest Shift in My Own Thinking
When I stepped back 4 years ago, I was 90% focused on fundamentals and only 10% on technicals. Like many “fundamental analyst”, I saw technical analysis as noise.
But over time, I’ve realised that this view was a bias — one that held me (and many other good investors) back.
Today, my framework is a 50/50 blend — 50% fundamentals, 50% technicals. Because the truth is, you need both:
Fundamentals tell you what to own.
Technicals help you decide when to act.
The real edge? Comes from combining the two — especially in times of panic, where emotion trumps logic.
That’s where generational wealth is created and this is what substack will aim to offer its readers.
🚀 What This Substack Will Offer
This isn’t just a reboot — it’s a transformation. The re-launch of this newsletter will focus on long-term investing principles, adapted for today’s market reality.
Here’s what you’ll get:
🧭 Provide timely, clear, concise market insights
📈 Proprietary valuation model price targets for major stock market indices.
🧠 Actionable stock ideas and stocks to watch
🔔 Buy signals based on proven triggers
🧠 Educational content — practical, not preachy
🤝 And finally but most importantly, access to a small community of like-minded long-term thinkers combining fundamental research with technical analysis to build generational wealth.
💬 Who This Is For
If you're:
Tired of short-term hype and regret-chasing
Burned by purely narrative-based investing
Unsure how to navigate the intersection of disruption, valuation, and risk
Then this is your place.
This is for investors who want to:
Learn how to time entries with conviction (without guessing tops and bottoms) - truly combining fundamental analysis with provable technical signals
Stay invested through uncertainty
Build real wealth the boring but effective way
Whether you're a long-time reader or brand new — thanks for being here. I’m excited to build this with you.
Because the next decade won’t reward distraction — it will reward discipline.
Let’s think long term with a framework that combines fundamental research with technical insights!
Disclaimer: I am not a Financial Advisor and nothing I share should be taken as financial advice. This newsletter is for educational and informational and educational purposes only. Investing is inherently risky and the risks could include complete loss of capital. Neither the author of this newsletter nor his company is liable or responsible for any financial loss incurred by anyone.